According to the Wall Street Journal, companies are hoarding cash, and so are consumers. Savings rates are going up. Consumers are spending less. This goes well with the cyclical book I'm reading that says that this is the end of the baby boom generations spending. They spent ofcourse because they were in their prime, earning power was at their peak up until recently, now they have to save for retirement. This is why the economy isn't out of the woods for a long time to come. Loan origination has gone down and so companies are saving to provide for their future consumption. I'd short all of the comodities now especially oil, which is highly dependent on the boom cycle.
Copper is already on its way down due to the slowing of China's State Driven Stimulus Package which is somewhere near $1 Trillion. I don't know why anyone would invest in China. Expect a repeat of Japan in the 1990s. China is highly dependent on America and other foreign consumption. The economy is not sustainable and domestic driven. Expect it to tank.
Chinese workers are demanding higher pay, and getting it. Pay has been increasing by 10%-15%. Companies such as Coach and Ann Taylor are moving thier production to Vietnam and India where workers are paid $.49/hour, and $1.89 in India. The problem is that by moving their operations to these countries, means importing the textiles from China anyway which adds to cost. Bottom line expect higher prices.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
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